State Revenues Down Again in February
The just-released February revenue numbers were down again in February, with General Fund receipts down 9.3%, matching the predicted revenue shortfall for the first time since before the fiscal year started in July.
In February, we calculated:
General fund revenues were down 4% in January, leaving revenues up 1.1% on the year. There are only five months left in the fiscal year. In order for Kentucky to meet the prediction of a $459 million shortfall, revenues must end up down 2.7%, not up 1.1%.
Last time we checked on the numbers, we noted that "the state must average a 7.5% reduction in revenues over the last half of the year." Now, the number required to meet the projection is to average 9.1% lower revenues over the last five months.
Meeting that projection in February, revenues must average a 7.6% decline over the next four months to meet the original projection. In 2008, March through June were quite volatile year-on-year, with a 5% decrease in March, a 36% increase in April followed by a 21% decrease in May. It will also complicate comparison once new taxes passed in HB 144 are implemented in April. It is unlikely we'll know where we'll end up until we are there.
