Flirting With Disaster
Much has been written about the race for the House Speakership between liberal Democrats Jody Richards and Greg Stumbo. There isn't really any good guess about who will win tomorrow. As Rep. Eddie Ballard put it:
"You talk to them, and one has 43 votes and the other has 40," said Rep. Eddie Ballard, a Madisonville Democrat who is supporting Richards. "Well, there ain't but 65 votes."
Generally, when Jody Richards says he has the votes and his opponent says they have the votes, bet on the opponent. But there's no way to know until the votes are cast.
Surprisingly (to me anyway), Stumbo's campaign isn't just against Richards, it's also against House Appropriations and Revenue Chairman Harry Moberly.
Additionally, [Stumbo] said Moberly would have to change his way of doing business as head of the Appropriations and Revenue Committee if he wants to keep the post he's held since 1995.
"I think Harry has too much control. He's had carte blanche veto power and he's a bit out of control in that respect," Stumbo said. "… A lot of people believe there's been an abuse of power, and if he's not willing to change we'll have to redistribute the wealth."
Moberly acknowledged Friday that there's a "good chance" he will be replaced if Stumbo wins.
Chariman Moberly holds considerable sway as chair of that committee due to his ability to dole out pork projects and command jurisdiction on almost any bill in the legislature because just about everything impacts the budget in some way.
Back around December 2007, when Beshear came into office, Joe Gerth reported some quote from Moberly where he said he hadn't yet heard from the administration. Moberly is the among the first legislators a governor should talk to. That was the first sign Beshear's team didn't know what they were doing legislatively.
Challenging Richards for Speaker is one thing. He's in that position as a bit of a compromise among the factions of the House Democratic caucus. He's not really someone who can punish the losers of the challenge.
Moberly is a different story entirely. He may not run the chamber, but he commands the things that matter. He is why Richards has such a strong chance to retain the Speakership despite general unease about the way the House is run. I wouldn't want to challenge Moberly and lose.
Which is why it's such a gamble for the Governor to actively interfere in the House leadership contest and campaign against the budget chairman. From Page One:
This week is going to get interesting. Rumors of a certain governor’s chief of staff pulling people aside to tell them they’re “for” Greg Stumbo and really need him to win. Rumors of, well, they’re not rumors– but Stumbo’s people defecting and supporting Jody Richards. The fur will surely fly tomorrow in Frankfort.
Governor Beshear has made a series of inept political moves since he took office, starting with forgetting to include Moberly, meddling and losing legislative races, hardheadedly pushing a nonsense casino bill without the legislature's input, flip-flopping around on the cigarette tax, flying around the state to campaign at taxpayer expense, hiring his friends and giving them raises in the middle of a budget crisis...
Working to push Moberly out and losing would be the end of his hope for any influence.
