December Revenues Not Down
Contrary to our earlier post based on a statement by President David Williams on Kentucky Tonight, the state's December General Fund revenues were up 1.3%, or $11.3 million.
In December, sales and use tax receipts grew at a strong 5% clip, yanking the year-to-date figure up from 0.8% to 1.5%.
In order to reach the $456 million shortfall projection:
"receipts must decline 7 percent over the last six months of fiscal year 2009."
That's if you round down. Really, the state must average a 7.5% reduction in revenues over the last half of the year to meet that projection. Yet on Thursday night, speaking to the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, Governor Beshear was still using the $456 million figure.
State General Fund revenues look like they'll end up somewhere between 1% and 2% growth, not the forecasted 2% decline. The fact that 1%-2% revenue growth would leave the budget with a $45 million to $130 million shortfall still points to a spending problem in Frankfort.
Nonetheless, it's probably time for the Governor to stop trying to scare people into tax increases and casinos.
